*Reprinted from S&P Global
Crude prices surged by a further 8% on March 3, while tanker rates rose even more, as the war in the Middle East entered its fourth day, with Gulf energy infrastructure coming under direct attack.
Shipping remained at a virtual standstill through the critical Strait of Hormuz, which typically carries around 20% of the world's global oil supply. China, which relies on the shipping route for a third of its crude imports, called on parties to de-escalate and "safeguard" the waterway.
It comes a day after the 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery was partially shut, which could "see the Saudis prioritize domestic refined product supply continuity by drawing inventories, reallocating volumes from other plants and potentially trimming discretionary exports if needed," analysts from S&P Global CERA said in a note, adding that it is "bullish" for clean product differentials and cracks.
The following are key facts about the ongoing conflict's impact on energy markets:
Trade flows
The Strait of Hormuz faces unprecedented disruption as military action threatens the world's most critical oil transit route.
l Ship traffic remained nearly halted in the Strait of Hormuz on the fourth day of the widening conflict, after several tankers with Iranian or Western ties came under attack.
l AIS signals show nine vessels navigated the strait on March 2, compared to 26 on March 1 and 91 on Feb. 28. An average of 135 vessels/day navigated the strait during February 2026.
l Some 15 million b/d of crude and 5 million b/d of oil products passed through the Strait in 2025, according to data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea.
l Vessels are beginning to reroute toward Yanbu on Saudi Arabia's west coast to support continued production. Just over 2.44 million b/d have been loaded so far in March at Yanbu, compared with monthly averages between 650,000-940,000 b/d over the past six months.
l Crude exports from southern Iraq appear to have dried up after production cuts at the 1.2 million b/d Rumeila field.
l No crude was loaded from Iraq's 3.5 million b/d capacity Basrah port on March 2, according to port loading data, taking yet more medium and heavy sour crude off the market.
l JPMorgan analysts warned oil producers may begin "shut-ins" if the chokepoint remains disrupted for 21 days. "In the interim, the US can mitigate transport risks through naval protection and insurance or guarantees for commercial shipping, and the Trump administration is expected to unveil a plan on Tuesday to address rising oil prices," they said.
l QatarEnergy halted production of downstream products including urea, polymers, methanol and aluminum one day after it halted LNG production.
l India's energy ministry said it has "ensured both availability and affordability of energy for its population by diversifying its sources," meaning it is not reliant on oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz.
Prices
Energy prices across commodities have surged as fears of supply disruption grip markets.
l ICE Brent futures were up 8% from the previous close at $83.95/b at 1609 GMT March 3, a multi-year high.
l NYMEX WTI crude futures were up 8.44% to $77.24/b at 1610 GMT, the highest since January 2025.
l Platts assessed the front-month May Brent-Dubai EFS spread at $6.08/b, up $1.09/b day over day. The spread reached its highest level since Dec. 6, 2022.
l Bunker prices increased more than Dated Brent, which was assessed at $77.82/b March 2, up 10% day over day.
l Platts assessed delivered 0.5% sulfur fuel oil at Singapore at $628/mt March 3, up from $578/mt March 2.
l The Platts global VLCC index ended March 2 at $269,509/day, up 30% on the day.
l Platts assessed delivered VLSFO at Fujairah port at $665/mt March 3, up from $575/mt March 2.
l European gas prices surged again March 3, surpassing Eur65/MWh following Qatar's LNG production shutdown.
Infrastructure
l Critical energy facilities across the Gulf have come under direct attack, disrupting operations and threatening supply chains.
l The 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery was partially shut after coming under attack.
l Oil storage and bunkering activity at UAE's Fujairah port were disrupted March 3 after fires suspended operations. The Port of Fujairah was combating a "large fire" after being struck by falling debris from an intercepted drone.
l A fuel tank terminal at Musaffah in the UAE was targeted by a drone strike March 2.
l Oman's Duqm port was struck by "several" drones targeting a fuel tank at the commercial port, the second such attack since the conflict began.
l The US embassy in Saudi Arabia warned of an imminent attack on Dhahran, where Saudi Aramco -- the world's largest oil company -- has its headquarters.
l Malaysia's Petronas said its Middle East operations continue normally. The company has producing assets in Oman and exploration assets in the UAE.
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